The U.S. has issued a stark warning that Russia may deploy its newly developed Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine again in the coming days. According to U.S. intelligence, Russia appears to be preparing for another launch, which could further escalate the nearly three-year-long conflict.
What is the Oreshnik Missile?
The Oreshnik missile was first used on November 21 in a strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. Surveillance footage captured the missile’s high-speed impact, showcasing its devastating power. While boasting a smaller warhead compared to other missiles, the Oreshnik’s speed and precision make it a significant threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin has touted its capabilities, claiming the missile is immune to interception and can deliver destruction akin to nuclear weapons without crossing the nuclear threshold.
Escalating Tensions
The anticipated missile launch comes shortly after Ukraine struck a Russian airbase in Taganrog using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. Russia’s Defense Ministry has vowed retaliation, escalating the already fraught situation. Putin has also hinted at targeting Ukrainian government and military sites, warning civilians in these areas to evacuate.
The introduction of Oreshnik is part of a broader strategy by Russia to intimidate both Ukraine and its NATO allies. The missile’s deployment aligns with Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, which lowers the threshold for nuclear responses, even to conventional attacks supported by nuclear-capable nations.
US and Western Support for Ukraine
Despite Russia’s aggressive stance, the U.S. continues to support Ukraine with significant aid. Just last week, the Biden administration announced nearly $1 billion in security assistance, including counter-drone systems and HIMARS munitions. Since the start of the invasion in February 2022, the U.S. has provided over $62 billion in military aid.
Future Negotiations in Question
The war’s trajectory may shift with the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has called for immediate ceasefire talks and has hinted at reducing U.S. support for Ukraine. This stance contrasts sharply with the Biden administration’s current robust aid strategy.
Broader Implications
The looming use of advanced missiles like Oreshnik underscores the intensifying stakes in the Russia-Ukraine war. Both sides are seeking to gain leverage in anticipation of potential peace negotiations, which could begin as early as this winter.
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