Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly Elections Set for November: A Crucial Test for BJP and Congress in Final Polls of 2024
As 2024 comes to a close, the upcoming state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand represent the final electoral battlegrounds of the year, with both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress eager to establish their dominance. After historic wins in the April-June general election and a significant victory in the Haryana Assembly elections, the BJP aims to finish the year on a high note. Meanwhile, the Congress, still reeling from recent electoral setbacks, views these polls as an opportunity to regain its momentum.
Election Dates and Voting Phases
On October 10, 2024, the Election Commission of India announced the schedule for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections. Jharkhand will vote in two phases: the first on November 13 and the second on November 20. Maharashtra, on the other hand, will hold a single-phase election on November 20. The counting of votes for both states will take place on November 23, and the results are eagerly anticipated by political observers across the country.
In addition to the state elections, the Election Commission also revealed dates for several Lok Sabha bypolls, including a high-profile race in Kerala’s Wayanad constituency. Rahul Gandhi vacated the Wayanad seat after winning the Raebareli seat in Uttar Pradesh during the general elections. The outcome of this bypoll will be significant, given Gandhi’s long-standing political legacy in Wayanad.
A Look Back at the 2019 Elections
The 2019 Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand saw dramatic outcomes that set the stage for the current political landscape. In Jharkhand, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), spearheaded by Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), secured a decisive victory, winning 47 out of 82 seats. Soren became the Chief Minister, defeating the BJP in a state that was seen as a stronghold for the saffron party.
In Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the then-undivided Shiv Sena alliance triumphed by winning 161 out of 288 seats. However, post-election disagreements over power-sharing led to a historic political realignment. The Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, broke away from the BJP and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress. This coalition government, however, collapsed in 2023 following rebellions by key political figures—Eknath Shinde from the Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar from the NCP. Eknath Shinde is now the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, with Ajit Pawar serving as his deputy.
Maharashtra 2024: A Test for Shinde and the Mahayuti Alliance
The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election presents a crucial test for the BJP-Shinde-led Mahayuti alliance. After suffering losses in the 2024 general election, where the alliance won just 17 out of 48 parliamentary seats, Chief Minister Shinde is banking on his flagship welfare program, the Ladki Bahin Yojana, to secure votes. This initiative, which provides a monthly stipend of ₹1,500 to economically disadvantaged women, has been hailed as a potential game-changer, similar to the Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, which helped the BJP retain power in that state.
Shinde’s government has worked hard to promote this scheme, hoping it will resonate with women voters, a crucial demographic in the upcoming election. However, the BJP and Shinde will have to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments and dissatisfaction within their own ranks, particularly given the defections and political upheavals that have defined Maharashtra’s political landscape in recent years.
For the Congress, which is contesting the election as part of a broader alliance with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, the stakes are equally high. The party is looking to recover from a disappointing performance in the general election and its unexpected defeat in Haryana. In Maharashtra, the Congress is determined to reclaim ground, with local leaders urging the central leadership to be more accommodating of alliance partners and avoid internal discontent that plagued the party in Haryana.
Jharkhand 2024: Hemant Soren’s Fight for Survival
In Jharkhand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren faces a different set of challenges. Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is a key member of the Congress-led UPA in the state, but his government has been dogged by allegations of corruption and money laundering. In January 2024, Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate on charges related to money laundering, only to secure bail in June after the Supreme Court ruled that he was not, prima facie, guilty. Despite these legal battles, Soren has maintained his innocence, accusing the BJP of politically motivated attacks aimed at undermining his leadership just before the Lok Sabha elections.
Soren’s ability to overcome these legal hurdles and rally his supporters will be crucial in determining the outcome of the Jharkhand election. The BJP, on the other hand, is looking to capitalize on Soren’s legal troubles and anti-incumbency sentiments to reclaim the state. The BJP is also eager to highlight the defections within Soren’s ranks, such as Champai Soren’s decision to leave the JMM and join the BJP.
The Congress’ Struggles and Strategic Imperatives
For the Congress, the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections are vital as the party seeks to regain its footing after a series of setbacks in 2024. In the Haryana Assembly election, the Congress was initially leading but ultimately lost to the BJP in a closely contested race. The party later alleged malfunctions in the electronic voting machines (EVMs) and criticized the Election Commission for delays in vote counting, but these claims did little to change the final outcome.
The Haryana defeat also led to tensions between the Congress and its allies in Maharashtra, particularly Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction. In a strongly worded editorial in the party’s mouthpiece, the Sena criticized the Congress for its inability to accommodate local leaders and for failing to coordinate effectively with alliance partners. This has raised concerns about whether similar internal discontent could affect the Congress’ performance in Maharashtra.
At the national level, the Congress’ role as the leader of the INDIA opposition bloc has also come under scrutiny. While the alliance managed to hold the BJP to 240 seats in the general election, questions remain about the Congress’ ability to manage alliances and coordinate effectively with regional parties in states where it is not the dominant force.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for BJP and Congress
The Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections will serve as the final electoral test of 2024, offering both the BJP and Congress a chance to consolidate their positions heading into 2025. For the BJP, a strong performance in these elections would cap off a year of historic wins, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third-term victory in the general election. For the Congress, success in these states could provide much-needed momentum after a difficult year.
As voters head to the polls on November 13 and November 20, all eyes will be on Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where the results will shape the political landscape for years to come.
